The evolution of global public opinion

The Centre for the Future of Democracy publishes reports exploring the evolution of global public opinion regarding democratic attitudes, political preferences and values, and perceptions of world powers.

Outreach: Newsweek, Financial Times, Irish times

Outreach: CNBC, The Times, The Times, Euronews, El Mundo, El Periódico, CNN Portugal, TSF Rádio, The Print, Financial Times, Radio France Internacional, El Nacional, Expresso, Folha de S.Paulo, The Guardian, Il Foglio, El Español, Spiegel, Süddeutsche Zeitung. China Daily, Forbes Centroamérica, Excélsior, Bloomberg, Washington Post, El día, Nexo, RTP Noticias, El Independiente, Swiss Info, Cadena Ser, La Vanguardia.

Understanding how (and why) politcians change their minds

Relying on survey responses from members of Latin American parliaments, we study the drivers of political elites’ views on different issues such as corruption or the army.

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Redistributive preferences in Europe

Relying on a large collection of national and international surveys, we estimate new aggregate measures of public opinion on redistribution. First, we examine if, when and how the support for redistribution differs across income groups. A time-series cross-sectional analysis of data on aggregate preferences from seven advanced democracies (1980s-2017) enables a study of the longitudinal dynamics of the redistributive preferences and of the different responses to inequality by low and higher-income strata. Additionally, we study the extent to which governments respond to changes in preferences across income groups and therefore whether we find unequal responsiveness in the field of redistribution.

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Work-in-progress:

  • “Unequal (public) responses to inequality. The structure and origins of redistributive preferences across Western democracies”, with Steven M. Van Hauwaert.
  • “Responsive to whom? The effects of party ideology and income-group preferences on redistributive policies”, with Steven M. Van Hauwaert.

Sub-national public opinion: Support for independence in Catalonia and Scotland

Using a mixed-methods approach, I aim to uncover the mechanisms behind the sudden increase in support for independence observed over the “austerity decade” in Catalonia and Scotland. I study the extent to which the public responds orderly to both national and regional political stimuli and economic events. Additionally, I explore the relationship between shifts in sovereignty preferences and the ideological changes at the aggregate level.

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Outreach:

  • Mirando al centro, de Carles Castro. La Vanguardia, 3/09/2018.
  • La misteriosa desaparición de la derecha en Cataluña: ¿todos se han hecho de izquierda?, by Héctor G. Barnés. El Confidencial, 9/02/2021.

Work-in-progress:

  • “Austerity and Independence: A Paired Comparison of Catalonia and Scotland”, with Sebastian Dellepiane Avellaneda and Anthony McGann.

The religious dimension of party politics

Scholars usually rely on the assumption that populist radical right parties refer to Christian values and traditions in more than mainstream parties. Yet, the role of religion in party communications has little empirical research. This research project attempts to fill this gap by analysing religious references of 36 political parties in seven Western European democracies (Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland) in order to test this assumption. In particular, it focuses on the salience of references to Christianity and Islam as well as on the type of evaluation of these religions in election manifestos and on Facebook.

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Journal articles on other topics: